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Research Article
Impacts of Climate Change on Temperature and Rainfall on Dawa Sub-watershed, Genale Dawa River Basin, Southern Ethiopia
Ayana Bulti*
,
Fentaw Abegaz
Issue:
Volume 8, Issue 1, December 2024
Pages:
1-23
Received:
26 July 2024
Accepted:
24 August 2024
Published:
20 September 2024
Abstract: Understanding how climate change affects the frequency and length of temperature and rainfall is global issue. Climate change is statistical variations over an extended period in the features of the climate system, such as variations in global temperatures and precipitation, caused by human and natural sources. In this work coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment for Africa, which integrates climate forecasts from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project5 based on an ensemble of GCM RCM model was used to statistically downscale the climate change scenarios. This study aimed to estimate climate change impacts on temperature and rainfall. The impact of climate change has been evaluated by reporting under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. For the extraction and bias correction of the daily maximum and minimum temperature, as well as rainfall of 30-year overlap periods, CMhyd has been employed. The annual minimum temperatures are predicted to increase by 2.94, 3.45, 3.21, and 3.59°C and annual maximum temperatures increased by 2.61, 2.83, 2.71 and 3.36°C for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. The change in rainfall reveals annual average decreases of 8.45 to 9.3% and 10.5 to 10.95% at RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Considering the evaluated parameters, minimum and maximum temperatures increased trends but for the rainfall, large fluctuations were predicted. Moreover, in the study years for the parameters in all simulated models, the RCP8.5 scenario estimated a higher amount than the RCP4.5 scenario. Implement various trees, apply water harvesting structure, Surface runoff harvesting and more multiple GCM-RCM driving models with various RCM outputs to improve more prediction accuracy in the future studies.
Abstract: Understanding how climate change affects the frequency and length of temperature and rainfall is global issue. Climate change is statistical variations over an extended period in the features of the climate system, such as variations in global temperatures and precipitation, caused by human and natural sources. In this work coordinated regional cli...
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Research Article
Long Term Historical Precipitation and Temperature Trend Analysis for Selected Stations in Bale and East Bale Zones of Southeastern Ethiopia
Zerihun Dibaba Tufa*,
Wondmagegn Bekele,
Hirpa Abebe,
Bacha Bultuma,
Bikila Mengistu
Issue:
Volume 8, Issue 1, December 2024
Pages:
24-29
Received:
10 August 2024
Accepted:
3 September 2024
Published:
20 September 2024
Abstract: Trend analysis for the long-term average temperature and precipitation of Bale and East Bale Zones during 1901 to 2016 has been performed for selected 5 stations to understand the pattern of these important meteorological features under climate change. The precipitation characterizations viz. standardized Precipitation Index has been considered for Sinana, Goro, Ginnir, Dallo menna and Agarfa stations. This study was aimed to analysis ‘’long term historical climate analysis selected stations in Bale and East Bale zones’’. The study considered station nearby kebeles was selected purposively from highland, midland and lowland districts. Standardized Precipitation Index drought index method was used to classify drought condition of the area. The findings showed that, the average temperature of the district showed an increased in the past three decades whereas the annual precipitation of the districts showed a decreasing trend with some variation from the mean in the period 1901- 2016 which was validated with 1984 – 2016 observed data. In line with this, representative respondents were considered from lowland, highland and midland agro-ecologies. Long term annual mean temperature showed increase trends by 0.17°C per decade at Sinana, Goro, Ginnir and Agarfa stations. Additionally, it was revealed more increment by 0.19°C per decade at Dallo menna station. From long term climate data analysis, it was indicated that extremely wet recorded in 1903, 1914, 1917, 1926, 1977 and 2013, while extremely dry conditions were recorded in 1919, 1938 and 1943 annual precipitation recorded for the whole period has been calculated and interpreted.
Abstract: Trend analysis for the long-term average temperature and precipitation of Bale and East Bale Zones during 1901 to 2016 has been performed for selected 5 stations to understand the pattern of these important meteorological features under climate change. The precipitation characterizations viz. standardized Precipitation Index has been considered for...
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Research Article
Evaluating Variability and Characterization of Seasonal Rainfall Over East Shewa Zone, Oromia Region, Ethiopia
Issue:
Volume 8, Issue 1, December 2024
Pages:
30-39
Received:
2 August 2024
Accepted:
3 September 2024
Published:
23 September 2024
Abstract: The objective of the research paper was classified as three main points. The first was to determine the seasonal and annual rainfall distribution of the zone. The second and the third was to evaluating seasonal rainfall variability and characterizing the seasonal rainfall of east Shewa zone in terms of onset and cessation date. Coefficient of Variation, Precipitation Concentration Index and Standardized Anomaly Index was the indicators used to assess the variability of seasonal rainfall of the zone for both main and second rainy season. Climatologically the zone received high amount of rainfall during June to September with peak value in July ranging from 300 to 660 averagely and during Belg with being peak in month of April with mean seasonal rainfall amount of 125 to 300. Bega is the dry period for the East Shewa zone as annual rainfall cycle result shown from the data of the year 1981 to 2020. Additionally 550 to 1060 mean annual rainfall observed during the study period. The result of coefficient of variation indicated that during the main rainy season its values ranged from 20 to 35% while from 30 to 50% during the second rainy season. It also indicated that high rainfall variability observed over Rift valley areas. The result stated that most parts of the zone are under moderate precipitation concentration during Kiremt and mostly irregular in the second rainy season. Standardized anomaly indicated that dry season dominated during second rainy period than the main rainy period. Characterization and identified variability of seasonal rainfall was important especially for rain-fed agriculture and hydrological advisory at zone level to support community.
Abstract: The objective of the research paper was classified as three main points. The first was to determine the seasonal and annual rainfall distribution of the zone. The second and the third was to evaluating seasonal rainfall variability and characterizing the seasonal rainfall of east Shewa zone in terms of onset and cessation date. Coefficient of Varia...
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Research Article
Analysis of a Case of a Classical Supercell Storm in Bihar, India: Observation and Tracking
Anand Shankar*
Issue:
Volume 8, Issue 1, December 2024
Pages:
40-51
Received:
27 August 2024
Accepted:
13 September 2024
Published:
29 September 2024
Abstract: In this study, we use the S-band Doppler Weather Radar to analyze the weather of a prolonged classical supercell storm that occurred on April 7, 2018, across the Indian state of Bihar. In the early morning hours of April 7th, 2018, a supercell storm with its origins in a colliding cloud mass produced in the Himalayan foothills invaded the Himalayan foothills from the North-West of Bihar via East Uttar Pradesh. The echo top increased to over 14 kilometers as it moved through the Bihar districts of Siwan and Gopalganj. As it followed, the storm shifted direction, heading northwest. Maximum radar reflectivity reached up to 61 dBz at 11: 32 IST observation (seen from Doppler Weather Radar, Patna), which may be the highest reflectivity ever recorded at DWR (Doppler Weather Radar) Station, Patna. It stopped being a supercell at 13: 30 IST and convert into a multicellular storm. A strange hook echo could be seen off the Storm's back in the Vertical Integrated Liquid profile. The supercell had two linked outflows, one to the northeast and one to the southeast. The Supercell's inverted "V"-shaped front flank was another characteristic feature. Within a small vertical band along the echo wall, reflectance reached over 60 dB at its highest. There was significant divergence near the peak of the supercell storm, with the speed differential between the updraft and downdraft reaching around 60 m/s. The system lasted for about 7 to 8 hours, damaging hailstorms occurred often along the path. Hail stones larger than 6-7 mm in diameter were spotted (as per the observed report). This particular cell was determined to be a supercell based on its internal structure, reflectivity, duration, and ground-level weather pattern. The incidence, timing, and development of the storms were all accurately predicted by the convective outlook products 2 to 3 hours in advance.
Abstract: In this study, we use the S-band Doppler Weather Radar to analyze the weather of a prolonged classical supercell storm that occurred on April 7, 2018, across the Indian state of Bihar. In the early morning hours of April 7th, 2018, a supercell storm with its origins in a colliding cloud mass produced in the Himalayan foothills invaded the Himalayan...
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Research Article
Rotation, Convectivity and Hurricane State Determined by Entropic Forces: Relevance to AI Methodology
Issue:
Volume 8, Issue 1, December 2024
Pages:
52-56
Received:
1 August 2024
Accepted:
20 November 2024
Published:
23 December 2024
DOI:
10.11648/j.ijaos.20240801.15
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Abstract: The concept of entropic forces is introduced to demonstrate a new method to calculate the convective state of a cluster in rain clouds, associated with hurricanes and tornados. A derivation of these internal cloud forces, involving the ratio of the angular speed and terminal velocity of rotating clouds, compared to convectivity, which characterizes the ratio of latent heating and dissipation rates, has been shown to adequately characterize a hurricane’s state. The existence and properties of the entropic forces driving the associated dynamics are shown to reveal the interactive conditioning of the individual clouds by the ratio of rotational momentum, and that of the release of heat upon condensation, to that by turbulent dissipation. The method requires a microwave/millimeter radar to locally compute the foundational properties before derivation of the overall hurricane state. Statement of Importance: A potential link between AI and entropic forces has been suggested by others. By the definition, offered by IBM ‘Artificial intelligence, or AI, is technology that enables computers and machines to simulate human intelligence and problem-solving capabilities’. In this paper, it is demonstrated that there is a computational algorithm which translates remotely sensed, strongly convectivity imagery into a numerical statement of ‘hurricane state’, and one which further uses simple mathematical statements of deduced forces in radar imagery. It is further deduced that the current AI computation of hurricane state from a GOES satellite should be extended to isolate radial flow in such rotating areas. It may also be that such areas have a locally different radiational temperature associated with local overshooting within a cluster.
Abstract: The concept of entropic forces is introduced to demonstrate a new method to calculate the convective state of a cluster in rain clouds, associated with hurricanes and tornados. A derivation of these internal cloud forces, involving the ratio of the angular speed and terminal velocity of rotating clouds, compared to convectivity, which characterizes...
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