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The Seasonal Climatology of Tropical Disturbances and Its Associated Tracks over the Bay of Bengal During 1891-2020
Shahanaj Sultana,
Kawsar Parvin,
Mohammad Abdul Mannan,
Mohammad Abur Rahman Khan,
Abul Kalam Mallik,
Mohammad Kamrujjaman
Issue:
Volume 5, Issue 2, December 2021
Pages:
20-28
Received:
14 June 2021
Accepted:
6 July 2021
Published:
18 August 2021
Abstract: The Bay of Bengal (BoB) is the import basin where tropical cyclone has been forming frequently compared to global perspective. The number and frequency of cyclone over the BoB varies year to year. The recent climatology of tropical cyclone and its track and landfall is very important to minimize casualties and damages. A statistical attempt has been made to know the seasonal number of cyclones over the BoB during 1891-2020 using BMD and IMD cyclone eAtlas data and the most devastating cyclones’ tracks of 1991, 1994, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2020 are also drawn over the BoB. From the analysis it is found that the total number of cyclones formed over the BoB are 35, 123, 97 and 28 during pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon and winter seasons respectively whereas 58, 33, 103 and 26 for severe cyclonic storms respectively. The cyclone of all intensity over the BoB follows initially Westward/Northwestwards tracks, some of them re-curved and follows north/northeastwards tracks. Sometimes looping track is also found over the Bay of Bengal. It is also found that some cyclones have completed their journey in the BoB without landfall. This variation of cyclone makes the BoB basin more vulnerable and more challenging for forecasting of tropical cyclones.
Abstract: The Bay of Bengal (BoB) is the import basin where tropical cyclone has been forming frequently compared to global perspective. The number and frequency of cyclone over the BoB varies year to year. The recent climatology of tropical cyclone and its track and landfall is very important to minimize casualties and damages. A statistical attempt has bee...
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The Impact of CO2, H2O and Other “Greenhouse Gases” on Equilibrium Earth Temperatures
David Coe,
Walter Fabinski,
Gerhard Wiegleb
Issue:
Volume 5, Issue 2, December 2021
Pages:
29-40
Received:
2 August 2021
Accepted:
11 August 2021
Published:
23 August 2021
Abstract: It has long been accepted that the “greenhouse effect”, where the atmosphere readily transmits short wavelength incoming solar radiation but selectively absorbs long wavelength outgoing radiation emitted by the earth, is responsible for warming the earth from the 255K effective earth temperature, without atmospheric warming, to the current average temperature of 288K. It is also widely accepted that the two main atmospheric greenhouse gases are H2O and CO2. What is surprising is the wide variation in the estimated warming potential of CO2, the gas held responsible for the modern concept of climate change. Estimates published by the IPCC for climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 concentration vary from 1.5 to 4.5°C based upon a plethora of scientific papers attempting to analyse the complexities of atmospheric thermodynamics to determine their results. The aim of this paper is to simplify the method of achieving a figure for climate sensitivity not only for CO2, but also CH4 and N2O, which are also considered to be strong greenhouse gases, by determining just how atmospheric absorption has resulted in the current 33K warming and then extrapolating that result to calculate the expected warming due to future increases of greenhouse gas concentrations. The HITRAN database of gaseous absorption spectra enables the absorption of earth radiation at its current temperature of 288K to be accurately determined for each individual atmospheric constituent and also for the combined absorption of the atmosphere as a whole. From this data it is concluded that H2O is responsible for 29.4K of the 33K warming, with CO2 contributing 3.3K and CH4 and N2O combined just 0.3K. Climate sensitivity to future increases in CO2 concentration is calculated to be 0.50K, including the positive feedback effects of H2O, while climate sensitivities to CH4 and N2O are almost undetectable at 0.06K and 0.08K respectively. This result strongly suggests that increasing levels of CO2 will not lead to significant changes in earth temperature and that increases in CH4 and N2O will have very little discernable impact.
Abstract: It has long been accepted that the “greenhouse effect”, where the atmosphere readily transmits short wavelength incoming solar radiation but selectively absorbs long wavelength outgoing radiation emitted by the earth, is responsible for warming the earth from the 255K effective earth temperature, without atmospheric warming, to the current average ...
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The Impact of Climate Variability on Food Security and Coping Mechanisms of Farmers in Boricha District Southern Ethiopia
Issue:
Volume 5, Issue 2, December 2021
Pages:
41-53
Received:
27 June 2021
Accepted:
16 July 2021
Published:
27 August 2021
Abstract: The rapid growth of greenhouse gas emissions as a result of human activities such as burning fossil fuels is raising the Earth’s temperature and leading to climate change. This results in variability in precipitation, the prevalence of more extreme weather events, and shifting seasons. The accelerating pace of climate change, combined with population growth, will also threaten food security. Climate change will result in irreparable ecological degradation and possibly the reduction of agricultural productivity in many parts of the World with serious consequences for food security. This paper investigated the impacts of climate variability on food security and coping mechanisms of farmers in Boricha district of Ethiopia by using meteorological, agricultural and socio-economic survey data. The study employed various data analysis methods such as computing the coefficient of rainfall variability, estimating the impact of rainfall and temperature change on agricultural productivity, and analyzing coping strategies of the local communities in response to climate extreme events. The coefficient of rainfall variation results show that rainfall variability has significant and negative impacts on agricultural productivity in the Boricha district. Moreover, linear regression model outputs for the relationship between rainfall and crop yields indicate that rainfall variability has been significantly affecting agricultural productivity in the district. Results from the multinomial logistic model for multi-choice coping/adaptation mechanisms also show that different socio- economic factors such as education level and age of household head, family size, farm income and livestock ownership affect how households cope with extreme climate events. This research suggests that policies should introduce adaptation measures outlined by existing rural communities such as inter-cropping, livelihood diversification and early maturing crops to incorporate indigenous knowledge to ensure food security and sustain the economic growth of the country.
Abstract: The rapid growth of greenhouse gas emissions as a result of human activities such as burning fossil fuels is raising the Earth’s temperature and leading to climate change. This results in variability in precipitation, the prevalence of more extreme weather events, and shifting seasons. The accelerating pace of climate change, combined with populati...
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